HTX Crypto Macro Research Report: “Token-Equity Strategy” Heats Up the Market and Signals a New Industry Cycle!
I. Global Macro Shifts Reshape Asset Pricing: Inflation, the Dollar, and a New Round of Capital Games
The second half of 2025 marks a new era in global financial markets dominated by macro variables. Over the past decade, easy liquidity, globalization, and technological dividends were the pillars of traditional asset pricing. But this cycle is witnessing a structural reversal of those conditions, prompting a deep reshaping of capital market pricing logic. As the frontier reflection of global liquidity and risk appetite, crypto assets are now being driven by new variables that influence pricing trends, capital structures, and asset weighting.
The three core variables are:
- Sticky structural inflation
- Weakened structural trust in the U.S. dollar
- Institutional divergence in global capital flows
Inflation is no longer a short-term, controllable issue — it has become persistently sticky. In developed economies like the U.S., core inflation remains above 3%, far from the Fed’s 2% target. This isn’t just due to monetary expansion, but persistent structural cost-push factors:
- AI and automation are driving up capital expenditures
- Green energy transition is inflating upstream rare metal prices
- The reshoring of manufacturing is increasing labor costs
Adding to this, by late July, the Trump team confirmed reinstating high tariffs from August 1 on industrial and tech products from China, Mexico, and Vietnam. This signals ongoing geopolitical tension and acceptance of inflation as a strategic cost. As raw material and intermediate product costs rise, a second wave of consumer price hikes is expected — ushering in policy-driven cost inflation, distinct from classic overheating-type inflation and more persistent in pricing effects.
Meanwhile, with inflation high, the Fed is unlikely to ease rates soon. Market consensus sees the Federal Funds Rate remaining above 5% until mid-2026. This creates “compression pricing” for traditional markets:
- Inverted yield curves damage duration bonds
- Equity valuations are suppressed by higher discount rates
In contrast, crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are priced more around “growth expectation + scarcity + consensus anchoring” models. They are less sensitive to interest rate tools and may benefit from capital inflows during high-rate cycles due to their decentralized and scarce nature — making Bitcoin a counter-monetary-cycle asset. As a result, Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a speculative instrument to an emerging store of value.
Furthermore, the U.S. dollar’s anchor status is being structurally eroded. The federal deficit exceeded $2.1 trillion in Q2 2025 — a record high. Simultaneously, global settlement dominance is facing challenges:
- Countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and India are pushing for local currency settlement systems (e.g., RMB-Dirham, Rupee-Dinar), partly in response to dollar-induced economic strains
- This shift reflects a growing decoupling from single-currency dominance
In this context, digital assets are becoming neutral, programmable, and sovereign-free value carriers. Stablecoins like USDC and DAI are rapidly expanding in Africa and Asia’s OTC and B2B cross-border payments, becoming the “underground dollar” in emerging markets. Bitcoin is being used for capital flight and hedging against local currency depreciation, with a 15%+ premium in Argentina, Nigeria, and Turkey.
Moody’s and Fitch downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit outlook to negative in June 2025, citing unsustainable deficits and political gridlock. This triggered volatility in the U.S. Treasury market and prompted capital to seek non-sovereign reserve assets. ETF purchases of gold and Bitcoin surged, reflecting both liquidity needs and valuation escape behavior — a shift away from overvalued U.S. stocks and bonds to re-anchor portfolios with “systemic safety.”
Finally, institutional differences in global capital flows are redrawing asset market boundaries. Regulatory tightening, valuation ceilings, and compliance costs are restraining traditional finance. But in crypto, looser ETF rules and auditing norms are giving rise to “compliance legitimacy” for digital assets.
In early 2025, several asset managers received SEC approval for ETFs themed around SOL, ETH, and AI tokens — channeling funds on-chain and redistributing capital allocations across assets.
Thus, a new pricing era is clearly emerging: institutionalized inflation, diluted dollar credibility, sustained high interest rates, and policy-driven capital bifurcation are reshaping asset valuation frameworks. Crypto assets — especially Bitcoin and Ethereum — are moving from a liquidity bubble phase to a structurally embedded value phase, benefitting directly from macro restructuring.
For investors, updating cognitive frameworks is more critical than short-term price predictions. Future asset allocation will increasingly reflect not just risk preferences, but an understanding of institutional signals, monetary structures, and global value systems.
II. From MicroStrategy to Earnings Reports: The Institutional Logic and Expansion of the “Token-Equity Strategy”
The most transformative trend of this cycle is the rise of the “token-equity strategy.” What began as MicroStrategy’s bet on Bitcoin as a treasury reserve has evolved into a broader institutional movement. This is no longer just a financial decision — it has become a strategic corporate behavior with structural implications.
This strategy:
- Opens capital market–onchain liquidity channels
- Creates new paradigms in earnings reports, equity valuation, financing models, and investor expectations
- Fundamentally reshapes crypto asset capital structures and pricing models
Initially seen as high-risk (especially during the 2022–2023 bear market), MicroStrategy redefined its valuation and financing model in 2024 via a triple-flywheel structure:
- Token-Equity Resonance: BTC appreciation boosts balance sheet value → stock price rises → future equity/debt costs drop
- Debt-Equity Synergy: Using convertibles and preferred shares to diversify funding and reduce overall costs
- Token-Debt Arbitrage: Borrowing in fiat while holding appreciating BTC to achieve cross-cycle capital migration
After MicroStrategy’s success, this model gained wide market adoption.
By July 2025, over 35 publicly listed firms have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets (13 also hold ETH; 5 experiment with SOL, AVAX, or FET). These firms use crypto assets to:
- Build capital loops via market mechanisms
- Boost book value and valuation via crypto
- Expand equity and improve financing terms through positive feedback
This expansion is fueled by regulatory progress. The CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act (effective July 2025) offer a clear compliance path for corporate crypto holdings. The CLARITY Act designates BTC and ETH as commodities, removing SEC oversight and allowing them to be accounted for as digital goods rather than risky derivatives — thus stabilizing earnings reports and enabling classification as long-term assets or cash equivalents.
Token-equity strategy also enables unprecedented financing flexibility, especially for growth-stage firms struggling with high borrowing costs. Crypto-backed firms gain higher price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios and can:
- Collateralize assets for onchain lending
- Hedge with derivatives
- Tokenize for cross-chain liquidity
This dual financing structure — yield and agility from onchain, scale and stability from offchain — especially benefits Web3-native and fintech firms.
Investor behavior is also changing. Companies with large crypto holdings now see their stock prices move in sync with token prices. Investors and hedge funds treat “high-crypto-weight” stocks as ETF alternatives or proxies for digital exposure. This pushes crypto financialization, expanding indirect flow and derivative pricing mechanisms.
From a regulatory strategy angle, the U.S. also uses token-equity strategy to maintain “dollar influence” without issuing a CBDC. Instead, it supports a regulated decentralized dollar network (via stablecoins and compliant crypto markets), with listed firms as fiat-on-chain bridges. Thus, crypto holdings are not just a financial move, but part of a national monetary strategy.
This trend is also going global. Firms in Singapore, UAE, and Switzerland are revising laws to allow crypto on corporate books, creating a race for global capital acceptance of digital assets. Over the next three years, token-equity strategies will become a cornerstone of both corporate finance and crypto-traditional finance convergence.
III. Compliance and Financial System Transformation: Accelerating Crypto Institutionalization
2025 marks a turning point for crypto institutionalization. The industry has shifted from “outpacing regulation” to “growth through compliance.”
Regulators have evolved into system architects and market enablers, signaling a shift in government perception of crypto’s systemic influence. With Bitcoin ETFs approved, stablecoin laws implemented, and accounting rules revised, compliance is now an internal driver of structural transformation, not an external constraint.
Key regulatory milestones:
- The CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, and FIT for the 21st Century Act have clarified commodity designations, token issuance exemptions, custody requirements, and accounting boundaries
- BTC and ETH are now legally categorized as tradable commodities, enabling ETFs, simplifying audits, and legitimizing inclusion in corporate and institutional portfolios
Major financial hubs like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Abu Dhabi are competing to be regulatory innovation centers, offering differentiated licensing and pilot programs for tokenized securities, digital bonds, and composable financial products.
Institutional adoption is rising:
- In 2025, crypto asset allocations in major portfolios exceeded 1.2%, up from 0.3% in 2022
- Firms like BlackRock and Fidelity now offer BTC/ETH ETFs and include crypto in core allocation baskets
The market is also innovating:
- Crypto ETFs with volatility protection
- Bonds pegged to stablecoin rates
- ESG indices powered by onchain data
- Real-time settlement tokenized funds
Custody is transforming too. In 2025, the SEC and CFTC approved three compliant onchain custodians, enabling verifiable, layered, risk-isolated custody infrastructure — essential for enabling cross-border settlements, collateralized lending, and contract execution.
More profoundly, crypto’s institutionalization reflects sovereign attempts to integrate digital assets into macro financial governance. As stablecoin daily volume surpasses $3 trillion and plays functional roles in emerging economies, central banks are:
- Pursuing CBDCs to maintain currency sovereignty
- Allowing “neutral stablecoins” like USDC and PYUSD to operate under strict KYC frameworks, giving them de facto clearance for settlement roles
2025’s market is no longer split into “crypto vs tradfi,” but a continuum:
Onchain assets → Compliant assets → Financial assets, with pathways between layers. BTC becomes ETF collateral. ETH becomes a financial protocol token. DeFi governance tokens enter hedge fund portfolios through structured packaging.
This redefinition reflects a broader evolution: from gray innovation to compliant infrastructure.
IV. Final Thoughts: From Bitcoin’s Decade to Token-Equity Fusion — Entering a New Crypto Paradigm
July 2025 marks Ethereum’s 10-year anniversary, and a moment where crypto moves from experimentation to institutional legitimacy. The rise of the token-equity strategy signals the fusion of traditional finance and digital assets.
This is not just a new market cycle — it’s a reconstruction of structure and logic:
- From macro money systems to corporate asset books
- From decentralized infrastructure to integrated governance models
- Crypto assets have formally entered the realm of institutional asset allocation
In the next 2–3 years, we expect the crypto market to evolve into a tri-core system:
- Onchain native yields
- Compliant financial interfaces
- Stablecoin-driven liquidity
Token-equity strategy is just the prologue. The deeper transformation in capital structures and governance models is only beginning.
What are your thoughts on crypto in Q4, are you bullish or bearish?
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